WTPS31 PGTW 071500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 020// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 174.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 174.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 18.7S 177.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 20.4S 178.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 22.5S 173.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 29 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 25.0S 167.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 34 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 31.8S 154.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 174.9E. 07APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING AND OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, POSSIBLY INDICATING AN EYE MAY BE TRYING TO FORM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED IN THE CENTER OF THAT DEEP CONVECTION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE 110 KT INITIAL INTENSITY FALLS NEAR THE AVERAGE OF PGTW/PHFO DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5-6.5 (102-127 KTS) WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 25P WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE ALONG TRACK SPEED WILL ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THROUGH TAU 24, THE INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 105-110 KTS, ALTHOUGH THE TC MAY GET STRONGER IF AN EYE WERE TO FORM. AROUND TAU 36, HIGH VWS WILL BEGIN WEAKENING THE INTENSITY. AT THAT TIME, INTERACTION WITH COOL SST AND THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72, TC 25P WILL HAVE TRANSFORMED INTO A COLD CORE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARD, SPREAD INCREASES PRIMARILY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN ALONG TRACK SPEED AND, FOR THAT REASON, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.// NNNN