WTPS31 PGTW 091500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 028// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 028 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 25.9S 167.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 30 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.9S 167.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 29.1S 161.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 26.7S 166.1W. 09APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 426 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 30 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONG, PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE BULK OF CENTRAL CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. A 091236Z GMI 36GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW BANDING, HOWEVER, THE 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES ONLY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0/5.0 (65/90 KNOTS) WITH A 091145Z ADT CI ESTIMATE OF 4.5 (77 KNOTS). THE STRONG VWS (35 KNOTS) AND COOLER SST (25C) ARE OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO 40 KNOTS WITH SST VALUES DECREASING TO 24C. ADDITIONALLY, TC 25P WILL UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT ACCELERATES EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH A TIGHT GROUPING OF NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 32 FEET.// NNNN