WTPS31 PGTW 081500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 024// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z --- NEAR 20.6S 178.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 23 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 178.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 22.8S 173.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 29 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 25.4S 167.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 33 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 28.6S 161.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 081500Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 176.9W. 08APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, PLACED NEAR THE CENTER OF A 20 NM OBLONG EYE. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE 115 KT INITIAL INTENSITY BASED ON PGTW/PHFO DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T6.0-6.5 (115-127 KTS). MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS PARTIALLY OFFSETTING ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT LESS SUPPORTIVE THAN SIX HOURS AGO. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 25P WILL ACCELERATE ALONG A SIMILAR TRACK AS IT FOLLOWS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE DUE TO STRONG VWS AND COOL SST AS IT TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. BY TAU 12, TC 25P SHOULD BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND START EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). ETT SHOULD COMPLETE BY TAU 36 WITH THE CYCLONE BECOMING A GALE FORCE, COLD CORE LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.// NNNN