›WTPS31 PGTW 061500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 168.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 168.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 16.7S 171.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 17.8S 174.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 19.2S 177.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 20 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 20.8S 178.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 26 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 25.1S 168.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 34 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 31.8S 155.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 061500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 169.4E. 06APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 106 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS TC 25P HAS MAINTAINED A WELL DEFINED 10NM EYE WITH ASYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T7.0 (140 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND A 061210Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 152 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TC 25P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST, WILL GRADUALLY BE TEMPERED BY INCREASING VWS AFTER TAU 48 WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE DOWN TO 70 KNOTS BY TAU 96. BY TAU 72, TC HAROLD WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS TRACK SPEED RAPIDLY INCERASES, BECOMING FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 96. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BECOMING MORE CONCLUSIVE AS VWS BECOMES MORE PREDOMINATE. NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.// NNNN